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NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country will experience a normal monsoon in 2023. The weather agency, however, maintained that El-Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season in India which could affect the rains.
“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average. April initial conditions have been used for generating the MME forecast for 2023 southwest Monsoon season rainfall,” IMD said in a statement. Meanwhile, it added that the La-Nina conditions changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.
El-Nino or El Niño-Southern Oscillation is characterized by a warming of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs every two to seven years, and it has the potential to disrupt weather patterns around the world, including in India.
If El-Nino conditions prevail during monsoon, it could affect the intensity of rains creating problems for farmers that have already been hit by unseasonal rains as climate trends change globally.
The impact of the climatic phenomenon can vary depending on the severity of El Nino. It is associated with reduced rainfall in India, particularly in the southern and western regions, which can lead to drought conditions. This can have a significant impact on agriculture, as many farmers rely on monsoon rains to grow their crops.A
The analysis at the moment suggests normal to above normal rainfall likely over many areas of Peninsular India and adjoining east-central India, northeast India, and over some parts of northwest India. Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of Northwest India and parts of West-Central India, and some pockets of North-East India.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, known as the agricultural bowl of North India could observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season if El-Nino becomes stronger.
“As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” the weather body said.
