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Background and introduction:
The rise of India as a global power is a historical development that will contribute to the reshaping of the world order in the coming decades, though it remains to be seen how India will project it’s preferred status . India’s distinctive character, and potential cum transformation is impressive and is combined with its wariness, vanity, and desire to compete with China, it has created an unusual sensitivity or even rejection of China’s voice. The delicate relationship between the two major Asian countries has fuelled ill intentions of external powers to seek to gain advantages from it. India has generally pursued a path of advocating for a multipolar world and seeking a more prominent role in international organizations like the United Nations. It has also engaged in economic partnerships and diplomacy with both established powers and emerging economies.
While India is on a path to attain Great Power status, it is projecting multiple images on the global stage. Given the multiplicity of status criteria in international society, a rising India is rightfully projecting its preferred status in a variety of ways. Just as individuals and groups in a particular society achieve and signal status in various ways, so states have engaged in a wide range of activities to gain status. India’s military capabilities have been a major mark of status in international politics, economic growth and technological innovation are also also India’s strong forces for international status and respect. Traditionally India demonstrated pride in its distinct status as a large developing country that championed non-violence, non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. Given India’s attributes, soon after independence it has been consolidating with a dream of becoming an ‘examplary power’ To position itself as a ‘synthesizing’ power, located at a political and geographical centre point between West and East, between global North and global South. It’s quest has always been in promoting morality, non-coercion and democracy on the global stage; and, on the basis of its identity as a synthesizing and non-coercive power, it has sought a distinct global role as an ‘alternative power’. Thus, while India has in fact built up its hard-power capabilities, it has tried to project an image that is different from that of the traditional western Great Powers.
We have seen in recent years, India has emphasized more on soft power , It has speeded up its pursuit of Great Power status. Together with Brazil, Japan and Germany, it has pressed for the creation of, and membership in, an expanded United Nations Security Council. Its resolve to become a legitimate nuclear state was not deflected by the US and Chinese backlash provoked by the Indian nuclear weapons tests of 1998. Now as Prime Minister Modi came into power in 2014, He has pursued an active diplomacy which is vibrant and assertive towards achievement of Great Power status, trying to strengthen India’s security and economic cooperation with the United States and Japan, while also actively engaging with China (during his official visit to china in 2015. Where Leader of the two countries reviewed the progress of bilateral relations.
The recent developments between India and China have created tension in South Asia about the possibility of a future conflict between the two nations. China has officially released the 2023 edition of its “standard map,” which shows the state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin region as part of its territory. The map released by the Chinese ministry of soil conversation on August 28 shows Arunachal Pradesh which China claims as South Tibet and Aksai Chin occupied by it in the 1962 war as part of its territory. Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea are also included within the Chinese territory in the new map. However this is not the first time China did it . China has been doing it since long . In 2006 Chinese ambassador in Delhi declared Arunachal Pradesh (State of India ) as part of China , followed by the cancellation of a visit of 100. Indian Administrative officers to Beijing just because one of IAS officer belongs to Arunachal Pradesh. China issued verbal protests many a times in the past against the visit of any dignitary to Arunachal Pradesh. Now many believe that there should be no surprise on these happenings as this is China’s routine affair and they (China) intensified it from last few years . Use of Sun Tzu’s philosophy of winning without fighting, with others arguing that China is preparing for war. However These events have led to concerns about China’s intentions and the need for India to be prepared for any eventualities.
Why China Claims Arunachal Pradesh
Arunachal Pardesh is a part and parcel of India and India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh. Arunachal Pradesh is an Indian State in Northeast India. It was formed from the North-East Frontier Agency region, and became a state on 20 February 1987. Itanagar is the state capital and its largest town. Arunachal Pradesh Shares international borders with Tibet to the north and northwest, Bhutan towards the west and Myanmar to the east. Arunachal Pradesh is the eastern sector and China disputes this international boundary and claims approximately 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in the State of Arunachal Pradesh. China illegally refers to this region as “Southern Tibet”. And also China’s main interest lies in the district of Tawang (North eastern region of state ) as it provides a strategic Entry into North-eastern region of India. The other truth is that Tawang region in Arunachal Pradesh has a huge population of Tibetan Buddhists. It is an important centre of Tibetan Buddhism. And there are connections between tribes in Upper region of Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet . China has a concern that in coming years the presence of these ethnic groups could foster potential pro – democracy Tibetan movement against Beijing . This worries China keeping into consideration the historical and cultural connections of these tribes . However according to Shimla agreement 1914 China can’t claim Arunachal Pradesh and Tawang as it’s part . According to the Shimla Treaty, the McMahon Line is the clear boundary line between India and China. On behalf of India, the British rulers considered Tawang of Arunachal Pradesh and the southern part of Tibet as part of India and which was also agreed by the Tibetans. Due to this, the Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh became part of India.
Why Is China Scared of India :
The Chinese incursion into Arunachal Pradesh and the release of maps to include Arunachal Pradesh with potential domestic motivations, indeed raises questions about Chinese presidents deeper concerns. Xi’s desire for China to rule the world and concerns about GDP supremacy, both globally and within Asia, are likely influencing factors behind his actions. These factors may be contributing to his insecurities and foreign policy decisions. but we need to understand the deeper unstated factors behind Xi’s insecurities vis a vis India.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will run into Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 9 and 10 September 2023 for G20 heads meeting in Delhi . The meetings between the two leaders will be brisk, business-like, shorn of diplomatic niceties as the confrontation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) festers. When Chinese president Xi arrives in New Delhi on 9 September, 2023, for the G20 heads of government summit, he will be aware of a new reality. The reality of India as a rising power. Let’s understand here why India’s rise worries Xi . As China’s own rise has stalled and The stall isn’t temporary. China’s three golden decades when GDP growth often crossed 10 per cent a year are over. But a terminally slowing economy isn’t Xi’s only worry. Beijing is confronted by an increasingly hostile United States-led West. China is now not completely in a good relationship with Europe , China’s relationship with Europe has deteriorated. Italy, Beijing’s beachhead to Western Europe, is set to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s support of Russia in the Ukraine war could end Beijing’s ambitious attempt to build a new Silk Route across Eurasia. Xi knows that China is growing older. Many reports from China says that , China’s public debt is over 282 per cent of GDP — twice America’s 130 per cent. When Xi took over as president in 2012, China had just ended a five-year period of spectacular growth. In 2006, China’s GDP was $2.75 trillion. In 2011, China’s GDP had nearly tripled within five rampaging years to $7.55 trillion. China’s oft-stated ambition is to be the world’s leading superpower by 2049, the centenary of the CCP’s founding. But to achieve that objective, Xi knows China must first be an unrivalled regional power across Asia. The only country that has the size and scale, militarily and economically, to thwart China’s absolute supremacy in the parabolic arc from the South China Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, cutting through East Asia, South Asia and West Asia, is India.
Since Modi had not accepted India’s subsidiary status to China through diplomacy in the Ahmedabad, Wuhan and Mahabalipuram summits, Xi concluded that New Delhi must be put in its place through other means.
Galwan Valley followed. However India’s strong subsequent military build-up across the entire LAC came as a shock to Beijing’s mandarins, used to India’s supplicantry silence over Tibet and Taiwan.
Now as we see China fears India’s rise and is threatening India at borders , issuing verbal protests and Country maps with Indian places . However let’s broadly understand Why is China scared of India :
China’s concerns about India’s rise can be attributed to several reasons, including:
Economic Competition: India’s potential to become a significant economic player poses a challenge to China’s dominance in the region. India recently beated China in emerging investment market in Asia. Economic competition can lead to geopolitical tensions.
South Power : India has a strong leadership at presen. India is now considered as smart power . India’s aspiration for global leadership, both politically and economically, could shift the balance of power in the region and beyond. China may view this as a threat to its own global influence.
Manufacturing
China is also scared of India overtaking it in manufacturing in the long term as labour costs in China are rising. Global Times, a Chinese establishment newspaper, wrote recently in an article headlined ‘China should pay more attention to India’s increasing manufacturing competitiveness’: “Although India is still in its initial stage of developing export-oriented manufacturing industries, the country has great potential to emerge as a regional hub for labour-intensive industries. One recent analysis showed China’s manufacturing hourly wage in 2016 was roughly five times that in India.”
Technology And space tech
When India launched 104 satellites, breaking the Russian record of 37 satellites being placed in orbit at one go, the Chinese media made light of this achievement. But a few days later, it corrected its stand and said China could learn from India in space technology. Chandreyaan 3 has scared China more .
Strategic Rivalry:
The two countries have differing strategic interests in Asia, especially in the Indian Ocean region. This can lead to a competitive and sometimes confrontational relationship.
Ideological Differences:
China and India have different political systems and ideologies, which can create ideological friction and competition for influence in the global arena.
Now as it becomes clear that China can’t dictate India in South Asia , It (China) must refrain the issues and should consider India as a powering country and accept the facts of Actual line control and Shimla Agreement .
The following policy measures are vital for both the Governments to promote peaceful relations .
Diplomacy and Dialogue: India is always open for dialogues . China should prioritize open and constructive diplomatic channels for communication. Regular high-level talks and negotiations and should accept the Mac Mohan’s line that can help address contentious issues.
Track II Diplomacy: Both the countries and especially China must Encourage non-governmental organizations and academic institutions to engage in Track II diplomacy, fostering people-to-people contacts and discussions on contentious issues.
Border Dispute Resolution: China must Actively engage in resolving disputes through peaceful means, possibly by revitalizing negotiations and confidence-building measures along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). International community must impress China to refrain from calling Arunachal Pradesh as their part .
Responsible International Behaviour: Uphold international norms and standards, including respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty of other nations, to maintain a positive image on the global stage.
It is essential for both India and China to approach these issues with a spirit of cooperation, mutual respect, and a commitment to long-term stability in the region. Peaceful coexistence and cooperation between these two major Asian powers can have far-reaching positive consequences for regional and global peace and development.
About Author : Sajid Yousuf Shah is a lawyer, political commentator and activist based in Srinagar J&K. He is a prominent Indian to speak on geopolitics, national security, terrorism and extremism. Shah appears regularly on Indian and international television. He is an author, Writer, and President of All JK Youth Society.
