Opinion | India-US Ties Under Trump Presidency

Trump’s second term presents both an opportunity and a test for India-U.S. relations. The warmth between Modi and Trump may provide a positive start, but the real strength of this partnership will be determined by how effectively India navigates the unpredictability of Trump 2.0.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has once again stirred discussions about the trajectory of India-U.S. relations. While the unpredictability that marked Trump’s first term remains, India approaches this renewed engagement with cautious optimism. Over the last twenty-five years, spanning multiple administrations in Washington, there has been a bipartisan consensus in both countries on strengthening ties. The foundation of this partnership—built on trade, defense cooperation, and shared strategic concerns—has proven resilient, weathering occasional policy divergences. With Trump 2.0, however, India must navigate a different landscape, one where the former president appears more assertive, unencumbered, and determined to reshape U.S. domestic and foreign policy with an “America First” outlook.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s early outreach to Trump after his re-election underscores New Delhi’s commitment to maintaining and advancing this partnership. Their warm conversation on January 27, 2025, signaled a continuation of the camaraderie that defined their past interactions. Modi’s visit to Washington in mid-February likely sat the tone for this new phase of engagement. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s interactions with the Trump administration further reinforce the belief that both sides recognize the need to be “bigger, bolder, and more ambitious” in their approach. However, India is also acutely aware that 2025 is not 2017. The world has changed, and so has Trump. The unpredictability that once seemed to stem from inexperience is now bolstered by a greater sense of confidence, making it essential for India to tread carefully while securing its national interests.
During Trump’s first term, India saw unprecedented support from Washington on key issues. The U.S. backed India’s fight against terrorism, supported the designation of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist, and played a role in the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) decision to grey-list Pakistan. Defense cooperation also saw a significant boost, with India being granted Strategic Trade Authorization Tier 1 status, placing it on par with NATO allies for the import of high-tech defense equipment. The resurrection of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), the renaming of the U.S. Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command, and the signing of crucial defense agreements such as COMCASA and BECA further cemented the strategic partnership between New Delhi and Washington. At the same time, Trump’s first term was not without friction—trade disputes, immigration concerns, and his occasional comments on Kashmir created diplomatic hurdles.
As Trump embarks on his second term, several issues will define the trajectory of India-U.S. relations. Immigration remains a sensitive topic, with Trump’s firm stance against illegal migration already resulting in the deportation of undocumented Indian nationals. However, on the issue of skilled migration, Trump and tech industry leaders like Elon Musk have advocated for reforms that prioritize merit-based immigration. The H1B visa program, which has long been a subject of contention, is likely to see changes aimed at preventing misuse while ensuring the U.S. economy continues to benefit from skilled professionals. For India, the challenge lies in ensuring that any reforms safeguard the interests of its highly skilled workforce in the U.S.
Trade is another area where India must tread carefully. Trump has repeatedly criticized India’s tariff policies, labeling it the “Tariff King.” While India has a trade surplus with the U.S., it pales in comparison to that of China or Mexico. Yet, Trump’s rhetoric suggests that India will need to make concessions to prevent a full-blown trade conflict. Modi’s government has already taken steps in this direction by reducing import duties on luxury cars and motorcycles, including those of interest to Trump’s political base. A revived discussion on a mini-trade deal, an idea that was floated during Trump’s first term but never materialized, could be a way to diffuse tensions and find common ground.
China’s role in shaping India-U.S. relations cannot be ignored. While Trump’s initial comments on China after re-election suggested a possible thaw in tensions, his administration remains wary of Beijing’s ambitions. The imposition of new tariffs, even if lower than initially threatened, signals that economic competition between the two superpowers will continue. For India, this presents both opportunities and challenges. The push for diversification of supply chains under the “China+1” strategy could attract more foreign investment to India, but it requires swift policy action to capitalize on this shift. At the same time, India must balance its deepening ties with the U.S. while maintaining a pragmatic approach in its dealings with China.
Defense cooperation is likely to remain a strong pillar of India-U.S. relations. With the U.S. emerging as India’s second-largest arms supplier, discussions will likely focus on increased technology transfer and joint development of defense equipment. India’s participation in the Quad will also be a key component of strategic dialogue, particularly as the Indo-Pacific region remains a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. Trump’s renewed emphasis on countering Chinese aggression in the region aligns with India’s own security interests, making it an area of mutual cooperation.
On the technological front, India and the U.S. have made significant progress, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The Biden administration had laid the groundwork for collaboration in critical and emerging technologies, and it remains to be seen how Trump’s administration will build on these efforts. The appointment of Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser—a figure well-versed in India-U.S. relations—suggests that technology cooperation will remain a priority. For India, ensuring that these collaborations continue and expand will be essential in maintaining its competitive edge in global technological advancements.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, D.C., on February 12-13, 2025, marked a significant step in strengthening India-US relations under Trump’s second term. His meeting with President Trump covered key issues, from trade and defense to technology and global security. The warm camaraderie between the two leaders was evident, reinforcing India’s confidence in navigating the evolving dynamics of the partnership. With discussions aimed at resolving trade disputes and expanding defense collaboration, the visit set the stage for deeper cooperation. As the dust settles, India remains watchful yet optimistic, ensuring its strategic interests remain safeguarded in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
India is confident it will be able to steer India-US ties on an upward trajectory during Trump 2.0. This is reflected in the warm and friendly conversation between PM Modi and President Trump on 27th January. Convergence on bilateral, regional and global issues is much greater than divergences on some aspects. India would be ready to have intense negotiations on trade, tariffs, immigration, defense procurement and other matters to arrive at mutually advantageous win-win solutions. India is sanguine that Trump Administration will put its Deep State, which has been interfering in India’s internal affairs, on a tight leash. Also, there will be greater meeting of mind on regional issues, particularly on the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in India’s neighbourhood, especially in Bangladesh. India will, however need to be vigilant, alert, and nimble to safeguard its core interests of security, stability, and well-being. India-US relations are poised to advance rapidly in the foreseeable future and be a force for bilateral and global peace, security, and prosperity. The recent visit by PM Modi to Washington DC was an optimal opportunity to navigate the bilateral ties to fresh heights of cooperation and partnership.
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