Opinion | Pakistan After the Taliban Took Over Afghanistan: A Complex Reality

Afghanistan “The Graveyard of Empires” located in the South-Central Asia had undergone through a longest war in U.S history and ending with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a turning point for South Asia, placing Pakistan at the centre of a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. With a 2,670-kilometer shared border, deep cultural ties, and a history of complex political and security interactions, Pakistan initially perceived the Taliban’s resurgence as a strategic win. However, the reality has been far more complicated. Pakistan played a pivotal role in facilitating the peace talks between the United States and the Taliban, which culminated in the Doha Agreement of February 2020. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and military establishment leveraged their historical ties with the Taliban to bring the group to the negotiating table. Islamabad’s involvement was driven by its desire to ensure a peaceful transition in Afghanistan that would safeguard its strategic interests, particularly by limiting Indian influence in the region. Pakistan also sought to position itself as a key player in regional diplomacy and secure its role in post-conflict Afghanistan. However, the Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government complicated Pakistan’s position. While Islamabad had hoped for a stable and cooperative Taliban-led government, the reality has been marked by increased security threats, economic instability, and diplomatic isolation.

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Taliban to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan and ensure a friendly government in Kabul. Many within Pakistan believed that the Taliban’s takeover would lead to a more stable and cooperative neighbour, yet the unfolding situation has proven otherwise. Diplomatically, Pakistan has faced criticism from the international community for its alleged role in enabling the Taliban’s rise. Western nations have expressed concerns over the Taliban’s human rights record and ties to extremist groups, leaving Pakistan in a difficult position as it attempts to maintain relations with the Taliban while addressing global concerns. Despite efforts to position itself as a mediator, Pakistan has struggled to gain trust on the global stage, further isolating itself.

Security challenges have intensified since the Taliban assumed control. Hopes that Taliban rule would bring stability have been overshadowed by a surge in attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has grown emboldened by the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan. This escalation has strained Islamabad’s relations with Kabul, as Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing refuge to TTP militants. The porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border remains a significant security concern despite fencing efforts, facilitating the movement of militants, refugees, and illicit trade.

Economically, the Taliban’s takeover has disrupted trade between the two nations. Afghanistan serves as a vital trading partner for Pakistan, acting as a gateway to Central Asia, yet economic collapse under Taliban rule has severely impacted trade routes. The closure of banks and the freezing of Afghan assets by the international community have further exacerbated economic difficulties. Additionally, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has forced thousands of Afghans to flee to Pakistan, adding pressure to an already strained economy and prompting calls for international assistance.

Domestically, the Taliban’s resurgence has polarized Pakistani society. Some view it as a triumph of Islamic resistance, while others fear the implications of Taliban governance on regional stability. This division has fuelled tensions within Pakistan, influencing both public opinion and governance dynamics. The situation has also reinforced the Pakistani military’s dominance over foreign policy, particularly regarding Afghanistan, complicating the already delicate balance between the military and civilian government.

On the international front, Pakistan’s relationships with key global powers have been significantly affected. Ties with the United States have become strained following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, with Washington expressing concerns over Islamabad’s alleged support for the Taliban. In contrast, Pakistan has sought to strengthen its partnerships with China and Russia. Both countries have engaged with the Taliban-led government, and Pakistan sees them as crucial allies in regional stability efforts. China, in particular, views Pakistan as a key player in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and considers stability in Afghanistan essential for broader regional connectivity.

Pakistan has faced criticism for its handling of Afghan refugees and its perceived support for the Taliban’s restrictive policies, particularly regarding women’s rights and freedom of expression.

A recent airstrike along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has further complicated relations between the two countries. Reports suggest that the airstrike, allegedly carried out by Pakistan, targeted militant hideouts but resulted in civilian casualties, leading to increased tensions. The Afghan Taliban has condemned the attack, worsening diplomatic friction and fueling anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan. The incident has heightened security concerns, with fears of retaliatory attacks and further destabilization. In the long term, such military actions could deepen mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul, making cooperation on counterterrorism efforts even more challenging and weakening Pakistan’s influence over Afghan affairs.

The Taliban’s return to power has reshaped the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Pakistan and India. Pakistan, despite its initial optimism, has faced significant security, economic, and diplomatic setbacks. Its role in facilitating U.S.-Taliban peace talks has not translated into the stability it hoped for, and its relationship with the Taliban remains fraught with tension. The Taliban’s return to power has presented Pakistan with a complex mix of opportunities and challenges. While Islamabad has attempted to leverage its historical ties with the Taliban to safeguard its strategic interests, the resulting security, economic, and diplomatic repercussions have proven difficult to manage. Moving forward, Pakistan must navigate its relationship with the Taliban-led government carefully, address domestic and regional security threats, and collaborate with the international community to stabilize Afghanistan. The situation remains fluid, and the long-term impact of Taliban rule on Pakistan will depend on how these evolving dynamics unfold. The road ahead is uncertain, but Pakistan’s fate remains deeply intertwined with that of its neighbour. The fate of Afghanistan will continue to have far-reaching implications for the entire region. How these two neighbours manage their relationships with the Taliban and each other will shape the future of South Asia.
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