Opinion | Why Relations Between Pakistan & Afghanistan Are Getting Worse

With Pakistan’s relations strained, Kabul has expanded its diplomatic and economic ties with other neighbors, including India, Iran, and Central Asian states.

The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has always been complex, shaped by history, geography, shifting alliances and competing strategic agendas. What was once described in lofty diplomatic terms as the “mother of all relations” has deteriorated sharply in recent years into a state of mistrust and hostility. Far from fostering peace on its western border, Pakistan’s policies have contributed to regional instability and worsened the lives of ordinary Afghans, even as Islamabad insists its actions are motivated solely by security concerns.

In theory, Pakistan and Afghanistan share deep historical links. Their populations are bound by centuries of cultural and familial ties, and the border between the two countries – known as the Durand Line – cuts through communities whose connections predate the modern states themselves. For much of the twentieth century, Pakistan envisioned a stable, cooperative Afghanistan that would serve its broader strategic interests in South Asia. In practice, however, Islamabad’s approach has been far less benign.

One of the most visible signs of deteriorating ties has been the dramatic closure of trade routes between the two countries. Since mid-October 2025, Pakistan closed all major crossings with Afghanistan, marking the longest such shutdown in memory. This move was justified by Islamabad as a necessary step to combat smuggling and terrorism, but the economic consequences have been severe for both sides. Markets in Pakistan’s northwestern cities that once thrived on cross-border commerce have emptied, and prices for goods have soared. In Afghanistan, already reeling from one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, agricultural exports have been stranded and traders have incurred immense losses. The impact of this disruption extends beyond commerce. It has deepened anxieties among Afghans about Pakistan’s intentions and reinforced the perception that Islamabad views its neighbor primarily through the prism of security threats rather than as a sovereign nation with its own interests and needs. Rather than engage in constructive dialogue to revive trade and cooperation under existing agreements like the Afghanistan–Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, Islamabad’s unilateral actions have signaled a willingness to prioritize punitive measures over partnership.

Security concerns have been at the heart of Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan in recent years. Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Pakistan has experienced a sharp increase in violent attacks attributed to militants operating in the border region. Islamabad accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities of allowing Pakistani Taliban fighters and other insurgents to use Afghan territory as a safe haven to launch attacks in Pakistan. Kabul has consistently denied these allegations and rejected claims that it condones aggression against its neighbor.

The mutual distrust escalated into open hostilities in late 2024 and beyond, with Pakistan carrying out airstrikes inside Afghan territory, particularly in Paktika Province, targeting alleged militant hideouts. These strikes – some unannounced and conducted without meaningful coordination with Afghan authorities – have drawn sharp criticism in Kabul and among regional analysts, who argue that they amount to a violation of Afghan sovereignty and risk triggering wider conflict. From the Afghan perspective, Pakistan’s heavy reliance on military responses reflects a failure in strategy. Instead of addressing the root causes of militancy or working collaboratively to build joint security mechanisms, Islamabad has opted for coercive tactics that have inflamed tensions. Afghan officials argue that Pakistan’s security discourse often conflates legitimate cross-border movement and refugee flows with terrorism, ignoring the plight of millions of displaced people caught up in decades of conflict.

In addition to military actions, Pakistan has pursued policies that Afghans perceive as discriminatory and punitive. The mass deportation of undocumented Afghan nationals and the implementation of strict documentation requirements have disrupted the lives of thousands, tearing families apart and undermining economic stability for many who had long made Pakistan their home. Humanitarian organizations and Afghan authorities have criticized these measures for lacking a humane framework and for exacerbating the suffering of vulnerable populations.

Diplomatic engagement between Islamabad and Kabul has been sporadic and largely driven by external mediators rather than genuine bilateral will. Ceasefire agreements have been brokered in Doha and other venues, and periodic talks have attempted to prevent clashes from spiraling out of control. Yet these efforts have repeatedly stalled, with both sides accusing the other of intransigence and bad faith. Pakistani officials have at times warned that “all deals are off” if the Taliban government fails to address Islamabad’s concerns about terrorism emanating from Afghan soil. Afghan leaders, for their part, have emphasized their sovereign right to manage their internal affairs and pursue independent relations with other regional powers.

Critics argue that Pakistan’s strategy toward Afghanistan suffers from a fundamental contradiction. On the one hand, Islamabad claims to seek stability and cooperation; on the other, its policies often deepen instability by alienating Afghan authorities and eroding trust. For example, the decision to expel Afghan refugees and restrict border trade as a lever to pressure Kabul reflects a transactional view of relations that overlooks long-term consequences. Rather than building confidence and joint prosperity, such measures reinforce narratives of hostility and competition.

Pakistan’s internal political dynamics also play a role in shaping its Afghan policy. Domestic security pressures, public opinion, and the influence of the military establishment have pushed the government toward assertive postures. Leaders often frame Afghanistan as a threat to Pakistan’s stability, emphasizing militant violence and the need for robust responses. This framing resonates with segments of the Pakistani public but risks entrenching a cycle of reaction rather than reflection.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is simultaneously seeking alternative partnerships. With Pakistan’s relations strained, Kabul has expanded its diplomatic and economic ties with other neighbors, including India, Iran, and Central Asian states. Afghan officials have emphasized their intent to pursue an independent foreign policy, free from domination by any single regional power. This pivot reflects not only pragmatic diversification but also a rebuke to Islamabad’s expectation of influence.

The broader regional context further complicates the situation. Pakistan’s relationships with India and China intersect with its Afghan policy, drawing Afghanistan into larger strategic rivalries. Instead of acting as a bridge to stability, Islamabad’s approach often appears entangled in zero-sum calculations that prioritize leverage over cooperation. This has undermined prospects for a comprehensive regional framework that could address shared challenges such as security, migration, economic development and infrastructure connectivity. The human cost of these policy decisions remains stark. Ordinary Afghans continue to face dire economic conditions, displacement, and insecurity, with limited access to essential services. Pakistan’s unwillingness to engage constructively has not alleviated these hardships; instead, it has contributed to a climate of fear and uncertainty for millions who hoped for peaceful coexistence. Similarly, Pakistani border communities have suffered from militant violence and restricted economic opportunities due to persistent tensions.

To genuinely improve Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, Islamabad must move beyond a narrow security framework and adopt policies grounded in mutual respect, cooperation and shared prosperity. This requires recognizing Afghanistan’s sovereignty, addressing humanitarian concerns associated with refugees and trade, and building joint mechanisms to tackle security challenges without unilateral actions that undermine trust. Sustainable peace cannot be achieved through intimidation or economic coercion; it demands dialogue, empathy and a willingness to work with, not against, Afghanistan’s aspirations.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s current trajectory risks perpetuating instability in both countries. Unless Islamabad reevaluates its policies and embraces a more constructive approach that values Afghan agency and regional cooperation, the cycle of mistrust and conflict will continue, to the detriment of peace and prosperity in South Asia. (Syedjahanzeeb2@gmail.com)