Opinion | Middle East Crisis, Global Distraction: Could Pakistan Exploit it against India?

Amid the unfolding global crisis, it is troubling that it could be exploited for terrorism. Reports and assessments, linked to Pakistan based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba, warn of possible Mumbai-style attacks. India and the international community must increase vigilance, remain prepared to thwart such threats, and work collectively to eliminate terrorism at its roots.

The Middle East has long been one of the world’s most volatile regions. Whenever conflict erupts there, the repercussions are felt far beyond its borders. Global powers shift their diplomatic and military attention to the crisis, energy markets become unstable, and international institutions focus on preventing further escalation. In such moments of global distraction, other regional actors sometimes attempt to exploit the situation for their own strategic objectives. For India, one concern that often arises during major international crises is whether Pakistan might attempt to take advantage of the moment to escalate tensions or encourage terror activities against India. Pakistan has historically exploited such moments of international crisis to escalate proxy warfare against India. With the world’s attention diverted, there is a real concern that terror groups backed by Pakistan may attempt attacks inside India.

For decades Pakistan has avoided direct confrontation with India. Whenever it did, it faced defeat or outcomes such as the creation of Bangladesh. This proxy warfare allows Pakistan to inflict damage on India while avoiding global scrutiny and preventing strong retaliation from India. Pakistan believes in bleeding India through a thousand cuts politically, economically, socially, and in every way possible. Therefore, it may not hesitate to exploit this sensitive situation in the Middle East to inflict pain on India, with Kashmir likely being the main target. As I write, I suspect Pakistan could activate its terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed that it has nurtured for years to carry out terror attacks in India.

Recently two reports surfaced on social media in posts published by MEMRI, a Washington-based Middle East media research institute. It said that Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terror group, has been strengthening its maritime wing, which could potentially prepare for attacks similar to the 2008 Mumbai Attacks. The 2008 attack involved terrorists arriving by sea from Pakistan and carrying out coordinated assaults across Mumbai. MEMRI’s report suggests that Lashkar-e-Taiba continues to study and maintain such operational capabilities, raising concerns among security analysts about the possibility of future sea-borne terror operations.

Another report from unverified sources suggests that recent security assessments have raised concerns about the recruitment strategies of the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed. Investigators believe the group is attempting to quietly penetrate India’s educational spaces by targeting young and impressionable students in schools and colleges. The strategy reportedly focuses on long-term radicalisation, where recruits are gradually indoctrinated while remaining away from the radar of authorities. By cultivating sympathisers over several years, the objective appears to be the creation of sleeper networks that can later support extremist activities or logistical operations. Security experts warn that such tactics reflect an evolving approach by terror organisations, shifting from direct infiltration to more subtle methods of influence and recruitment within society.

We do not claim these reports to be 100 percent true, but there is no smoke without fire. At the same time, it is difficult to trust Pakistan given its past record involving groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Recently days age an infiltration bid was foiled by the Army in J&K’s Rajouri, which further consolidated the reports.

History also suggests that whenever there was some sort of engagement or disturbance in any part of the world, Pakistan has used that against India for its notorious actions. India’s past experience also makes it difficult to ignore such concerns. In December 2015, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan in an attempt to improve relations, the gesture was followed within weeks by the Pathankot Airbase Attack in January 2016. Later that same year, when India was engaged in other diplomatic and internal priorities, terrorists carried out the Uri Attack, targeting an Indian Army base.

Similarly, initiatives meant to build trust such as cross-border trade, tourism openings, and the Karvan-e-Aman Bus Service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad faced setbacks due to terrorism, infiltration, and even drug trafficking networks from Pakistan. These patterns have led many analysts to argue that whenever India extends a hand of engagement or is preoccupied with other priorities, terror attacks often follow. Incidents like the 2008 Mumbai Attacks, the Pulwama Attack, and the Pahalgam Attack further reinforce this perception that trust-building efforts have frequently been undermined by violence from Pakistan. Simply, whenever India built something, Pakistan destroyed it. So, history forces us to consider these reports and act accordingly.

The current global situation, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, shifting international attention, and the emergence of a changing world order create an environment that Pakistan could attempt to exploit. With major powers focused on crises elsewhere, there is concern among analysts that such circumstances could provide a conducive space for Pakistan-based terror networks, including groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, to attempt renewed terror activities against India. This possibility reinforces the need for continued vigilance and strong counter-terrorism preparedness.

While Indian intelligence agencies and security forces remain fully capable of thwarting such threats and have delivered decisive responses in the past, vigilance remains essential. India’s security apparatus should remain on high alert to prevent any attempt at infiltration or terrorist activity by groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. At the same time, the international community must ensure that global crises do not create spaces where terrorist networks can operate freely. The world must remain cautious, strengthen its vigilance, and make every possible effort to cooperate with India in eliminating terrorism at its roots and holding those who encourage or support such activities accountable before justice.

It is shameful to admit that in such sensitive times, when wars happen, innocent lives are lost, someone can still think of misusing the situation to carry out terror attacks. What to say now different people, different mindsets and priorities. One can only hope that wisdom prevails, tensions ease, and peace and sanity ultimately triumph over conflict and violence.

ALIZAROON@112GMAIL.COM