The economic crisis in Jammu & Kashmir began with the floods in 2014, followed by the demonization and shutdown in Kashmir for several months during the uprising of 2016 and successive lockdowns, the situation continued to remain volatile which incurred huge losses to Jammu and Kashmir. Post the constitutional and political developments of August 2019, Kashmir literally entered a snooze mode and life was about to go back to normal, the Covid-19 pandemic had already widened its wings to this part of the world. On May 12, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation after a 49 days lockdown, the economy has already been estimated to have lost Rs 17.5 lakh crores or around 8% of its GDP with over 12 crore jobs lost. While the Jammu And Kashmir UT has a comparatively small manufacturing sector, it does provide employment to around 3.5% of the working population. But the sector too has faced very deep losses because of double lockdown imposed in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019 to 2021.Handicrafts, which provides an income to more than three lakh artisans (7% of the workforce) and contributes over 1700 crore to the export economy annually was first devastated by the sustained communication blockade and is now buried under debris of global recession. Unemployment problem among youth, both skilled and unskilled workers is quite large when compared to other states.
There is no sector of Kashmir’s economy, be it tourism, horticulture, transport or trade that hasn’t suffered losses in the past four years. Economy is already on its deathbed in Kashmir. The unemployment rate, a month before clampdown was about 14.74% but drastically rose in next six months to 21.08%, currently in Kashmir unemployment rate is 23.18% in April 2023, According to CMIE report. The local trade during the lockdown was suffering losses of 150 crore Rupees per day owing to the overall economic crisis, the public spending power has also diminished .People don’t have the spending power to afford things.
Shopian is known as the apple bowl of the country as the district’s apple orchards are spread over 21676 hectares making it the biggest apple producer in the country. In Kashmir apple industry is also in loss from the last 2 years. During lockdown, the markets were flooded with fake and substandard pesticides which caused damage to crops. The quality check of the pesticides was not possible due to restrictions; the shopkeepers even started selling them at higher rates resulting in the loss of the apple industry. The 10,000 crore horticulture industry is a major contributor to Kashmir’s economy and it involves 3.5 million people directly or indirectly. These substandard pesticides and chemicals hit the orchards with crop diseases called scab, it eventually led to decline in prices of apples resulting in economic loss. Kashmir’s economy is declining every year. Every business in Kashmir suffered at least 50% decline in earnings last year, said a report on ‘Impact of Lockdowns in the Region’ by the Forum Of Human Rights In J&K’. While the business community was still struggling to revive after the unprecedented developments since August 2019, the fresh spell of lockdown has created havoc for many families which survive on daily earnings. Tourism industry also suffered huge losses during lockdown and successive shutdowns. According to the report of ‘Kashmir Chambers of Commerce and Industry,’ lost about Rs 10000 crores had been estimated. During lockdown to prevent the spread of the spread of Covid-19 Kashmir houseboat owner said, we have not earned a single penny for a year, all we have are these boats, we don’t have any other means to earn.
ECONOMIC RECESSION OR ECONOMIC DOWNFALL
Days before the constitutional and political developments of August 2019, the authorities literally curtailed the movement of visitors from people outside erstwhile state shifting its economy, since then ten thousands of jobs have been lost. The prolonged cycles of unrest/ lockdown caused a major downfall to the industrial sector in the Union Territory and caused a major loss to production. The estimated loss suffered by the industry sector due to lockdown and curfews in 2016-17 is of the order of Rs 13291 crore (USD $2.1 Billion). Transport sector was also hit by those shutdowns and lockdowns in J&K. Halt in transport meant a halt in mobility and non-earnings of these transporters during lockdown resulted in the non-payment of loans to banks. Mechanical workshops, petrol pumps and service stations also got affected due to the halt in public transportation. The Jammu and Kashmir State Road Transport Corporation (JKSRTC) lost at least Rs 5.25 crores of revenue in the year 2019 alone. The lockdowns lead to the forced closure of shops and many other commercial establishments which is also the main cause of economic depression. Apart from these sectors, other sectors in which heavy losses were incurred include infrastructure, construction, health sector, online mode of businesses, banking, forest which altogether make up for the estimated loss of over Rs 16000 crores in the year 2019-21.
The untoward happenings have affected all important sources of livelihood of local populace such as agriculture, horticulture, tourism, handicrafts with many other traders. These lockdowns have put the lives of people of Jammu and Kashmir under unnecessary strain. Labourers from Jammu and Kashmir as well as across the country used to work for decades to earn their bread and butter but all of the sudden they lost their jobs henceforth the primary effect of restrictions being on labourers. Unfortunately the crux is that all business exercises are left in residue and all of the sudden focus shifted from business to survival of life. In sum, Kashmir’s economic picture is not pretty at all, it is extremely risky in economic development.
– The writer, having completed his PG Economics from CU Uttrakhand, is a resident of Bomai Zaingeer Baramulla. He can be reached at iqbalmarazi999@gmail.com