Opinion | India Russia Deal

For both New Delhi and Moscow, the goal is clear: to ensure that their partnership remains relevant, resilient and mutually beneficial in a rapidly changing global order.

One of the world’s longest-standing strategic partnerships is quietly undergoing a major reset. India and Russia are now looking beyond their traditional dependence on energy and defence, working toward a broader and more balanced economic relationship.

The change in direction follows the annual India–Russia summit held in December, after which Moscow formally described India as an “absolute priority” partner. Since then, discussions have gathered pace on bringing Russian manufacturing and technology investments directly to Indian soil.

This renewed momentum comes at a time when bilateral trade has reached an all-time high. In the 2024–25 financial year, trade between the two countries touched $68.7 billion, nearly six times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Yet the numbers also reveal a clear imbalance. Imports from Russia—largely crude oil and fertilisers—accounted for almost $63.8 billion, prompting both sides to push for a more sustainable trade structure.

From Trade to Partnership

Instead of continuing with a buyer-seller model, the emphasis is now on joint ventures and local production. Andrey Sobolev, Russia’s trade representative in India, told Russian news agency TASS that Indian manufacturing hubs are increasingly attracting Russian firms.

According to Sobolev, companies are keen to become part of India’s Make in India programme, with projects aimed not only at the Indian market but also at serving the wider South Asian region.

Key sectors identified for collaboration include:

Shipbuilding and logistics, covering civilian vessels as well as specialised Arctic-class ships

Information technology, particularly cybersecurity, fintech and digital payment systems

Renewable energy, aligned with India’s clean-energy goals

Metallurgy and heavy engineering, including industrial machinery and components

The idea, officials say, is to create long-term industrial cooperation rather than short-term trade gains.

The $100 Billion Ambition

India and Russia have set an ambitious target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, but experts stress that this goal will only be meaningful if Indian exports grow substantially.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has called for Indian exports to Russia to double to $10 billion in the near term. FIEO CEO Ajay Sahai has pointed out that for trade to remain balanced, India’s exports will eventually need to reach $30–35 billion.

At present, India mainly exports pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals and agricultural products to Russia. To close the gap, both sides are discussing easier market access for higher-value goods such as electronics, aerospace components and medical equipment.

Opening the Arctic Route

Perhaps the most forward-looking element of the evolving partnership is cooperation in the Arctic. India and Russia are working on developing the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—a 5,600-kilometre shipping corridor running along Russia’s Arctic coast.

The route, which connects the Kara Strait to Providence Bay, could significantly reduce travel time for cargo moving between Europe and the Asia-Pacific compared to the Suez Canal.

Recent agreements have focused on:

Creating a reliable cargo base for year-round navigation

Setting clear economic benchmarks for Arctic shipping

Developing joint logistics ventures along the Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor

If successful, the project could reshape long-distance trade routes in the coming decade.

A Structured Framework

Much of the groundwork is being handled by the India–Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC). The commission is co-chaired by India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.

With 17 specialised working groups—ranging from climate change to banking and finance—the institutional framework for a modernised partnership is already in place. Negotiations are also underway on a Bilateral Investment Treaty to give businesses on both sides greater confidence.

The message emerging from the December summit is unmistakable. What was once a relationship defined largely by oil shipments and defence contracts is now evolving into a multi-sector industrial alliance, one rooted in manufacturing, technology, logistics and long-term economic cooperation.

Email: ShaneHind114@gmail.com