Pakistan, with a population of over 220 million, has been grappling with political unrest, economic challenges, and increasing terrorism. The ouster and arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have further complicated the situation, raising concerns about the country’s ability to secure much-needed financial assistance and maintain stability. The roots of these challenges and the impacts on the nation’s future are various in number. The last hope for Pakistanis in the shape of former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, leading to widespread political unrest in Pakistan. Khan’s dramatic arrest on corruption charges triggered nationwide protests and violent clashes, with supporters storming buildings and clashing with security forces. Khan was later released on bail, but he expected to be arrested again, further fuelling tensions in the country. The Supreme Court of Pakistan deemed Khan’s arrest unlawful, which added to the already unstable political environment. Amid the chaos, the upcoming elections in the fall have become even more uncertain, with analysts predicting the volatile political situation to significantly impact the outcome. On the other hand Pakistan’s economy has been struggling with stalled growth and soaring inflation over the past year. The cost of living has rapidly increased, with the annual inflation rate reaching 36.4% in April of 2023. Food prices, in particular, have skyrocketed, leading to deadly stampedes at distribution centres. The depreciating rupee and dwindling foreign reserves have further exacerbated the country’s economic crisis.
The ongoing balance of payments crisis in Pakistan has eroded the country’s living standards, with the World Bank warning that it could reverse poverty gains achieved in the last two decades and further reduce the incomes of poor households. Pakistan’s ability to maintain payments on its debt has also been called into question, with ratings agency Moody’s downgrading the country’s credit rating in late February 2023.Pakistan’s economic meltdown has led the country to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the ongoing political turmoil has cast doubt on Pakistan and the IMF’s ability to reach an agreement to unlock much-needed funds. The IMF has been in talks with Pakistan’s government about restarting a $6.5 billion assistance program, but the volatile political environment has made investors sceptical about the prospects of a deal.The support from the IMF is seen as essential to unlocking funding from other sources and avoiding a default on Pakistan’s debt. However, with the upcoming elections and mounting public ire, it is unlikely that the reforms requested by the IMF to improve the country’s fiscal position will be agreed upon, as they would contribute to economic hardship in the near term. Without help from the IMF, the risks of Pakistan defaulting on its debt continue to rise.
Pakistan has also been facing an increase in terrorist attacks, particularly in the provinces bordering Afghanistan. Deadly militant attacks have persisted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, further destabilizing the country and adding to the challenges faced by the government. Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban have been strained, with the letter urging Islamabad and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to “find a solution to these problems on their own.” The ongoing security concerns in the region have further complicated Pakistan’s efforts to address its economic crisis and maintain political stability.
The army has played a significant role in shaping Pakistani politics, with the military often stepping in to maintain control during times of political upheaval. The arrest of Imran Khan and the subsequent protests have put the army in a difficult position, as it seeks to maintain its influence in the country while preventing further violence and chaos. Army and people of Pakistan are no longer on the same page. When Imran Khan was arrested people in Pakistan attacked army installations including headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi. The void between the army and the people has made the army weak.
Pakistan is facing a multitude of crises, from political unrest following Imran Khan’s arrest to an economic meltdown, escalating terrorism, and strained relations with neighbouring countries. The country’s future is uncertain, as it struggles to secure financial assistance from the IMF and maintain stability amid the chaos. It remains to be seen whether Pakistan can overcome these challenges and chart a path toward sustainable growth and development.
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